Community Risk Assessment & Preparedness Plan: Flooding in Kisumu County, Kenya

Introduction: The Emergency Management (EM) Problem

This case study focuses on the persistent and escalating problem of recurrent seasonal flooding in Kisumu County, Kenya. The challenge lies in the multifaceted nature of the floods, which are increasingly severe due to climate change (heavy, unpredictable rainfall), combined with rapid, unplanned urbanization, inadequate drainage infrastructure, proximity to Lake Victoria, and informal settlements in low-lying areas. The EM problem is the need for a comprehensive, community-centric approach to mitigate the impacts, enhance preparedness, streamline response, and ensure resilient recovery from these predictable yet devastating events. Current efforts often focus heavily on response, neglecting robust mitigation and preparedness strategies, leading to continuous cycles of damage and displacement.

Historical Discussion of the Event

Kisumu, strategically located on the shores of Lake Victoria and at the convergence of several rivers (e.g., River Kibos, River Nyamasaria), has a long history of flooding. While historically linked to the seasonal long rains (March-May) and short rains (October-December), the frequency, intensity, and duration of floods have significantly worsened in recent decades.

Major Flood Events and Impacts:

• 2019-2020 Lake Victoria Backflow Floods: This period saw unprecedented water levels in Lake Victoria, leading to widespread displacement. In May 2020 alone, over 300,000 people were displaced across several counties bordering the lake, with Kisumu being severely affected (OCHA, 2020). Areas like Kano Plains, Nyando, parts of Kisumu City’s informal settlements (e.g., Nyalenda, Obunga), and lakeside communities were submerged.
• Economic Damage: Thousands of acres of agricultural land, particularly in the fertile Kano Plains, are routinely inundated, leading to crop destruction and livestock loss, devastating the livelihoods of subsistence farmers (Okaka & Oyugi, 2021). Businesses in low-lying urban areas suffer property damage, loss of inventory, and disruption of operations. The cumulative economic losses are immense, hindering regional development.
• Injuries and Health Impacts: While direct flood-related fatalities may not always be high, injuries occur during evacuations, and the aftermath brings severe health crises. Contaminated water sources lead to outbreaks of cholera, typhoid, and malaria (due to increased mosquito breeding sites). Displaced populations in temporary camps face heightened risks of respiratory infections, skin diseases, and malnutrition (Odhiambo & Okello, 2021). Psychosocial trauma is also prevalent.
• Infrastructure Damage: Roads, bridges, and culverts are washed away or severely damaged, disrupting transport and access to essential services. Water and sanitation infrastructure (boreholes, latrines) are contaminated or destroyed. Schools and health centers in affected areas become inaccessible or are used as temporary shelters, disrupting education and healthcare services. Power lines are often damaged, leading to outages.
• Area Impacted: The most consistently impacted areas include the Kano Plains (Nyando, Muhoroni, Kadibo sub-counties), numerous informal settlements within Kisumu City (e.g., Nyalenda, Obunga, Manyatta) due to poor drainage, and communities directly on the shores of Lake Victoria experiencing backflow and rising lake levels.
• Response/Recovery Issues:
  • Inadequate Early Warning Systems: Often, warnings are not localized or disseminated effectively to the most vulnerable communities, leading to delayed evacuations.
  • Logistical Challenges: Accessing flooded areas for rescue and aid delivery is difficult due to damaged roads and lack of appropriate transport (boats).
  • Overwhelmed Resources: Local government and humanitarian agencies are frequently overwhelmed by the scale of displacement and needs, leading to delays in providing shelter, food, and medical aid.
  • Unsustainable Recovery: Recovery efforts often focus on short-term relief rather than long-term resilience. Communities rebuild in the same vulnerable areas without adequate mitigation measures, perpetuating the cycle.
  • Coordination Gaps: Lack of seamless coordination between various government agencies (national, county), NGOs, and local community leaders can lead to duplication of efforts or critical gaps in service delivery.

Lessons Learned and Recommendations for Each Phase of EM

The recurring nature and escalating impact of flooding in Kisumu highlight critical lessons: reactive approaches are unsustainable. A paradigm shift towards proactive, integrated EM is essential.

1. Mitigation (Preventing Future Impacts):
   • Lessons Learned: Current mitigation is insufficient; reliance on short-term relief. Unplanned development in floodplains exacerbates the problem.
   • Recommendations:
     • Implement and Enforce Strict Land-Use Planning & Zoning: Develop and enforce regulations that prohibit construction in high-risk floodplains and riparian reserves, particularly for informal settlements. Relocate existing vulnerable communities from high-risk areas to safer, elevated grounds (long-term, sensitive planning).
     • Invest in Climate-Resilient Infrastructure: Develop and upgrade drainage systems within Kisumu City to handle increased rainfall volumes. Construct flood control dams, dykes, and retention ponds in the Kano Plains and along river banks to manage riverine floods and Lake Victoria backflow.
     • Ecosystem-Based Adaptation: Promote and fund reforestation of degraded watersheds to slow runoff, and wetland restoration around Lake Victoria to act as natural flood buffers.
     • Community-Based Structural Solutions: Support communities in building raised homesteads and water-resistant structures where full relocation is not immediately feasible.
2. Preparedness (Getting Ready for the Inevitable):
   • Lessons Learned: Early warning systems are often ineffective; community awareness and individual preparedness are low.
   • Recommendations:
     • Enhanced Early Warning Systems (EWS): Develop a multi-hazard EWS specific to Kisumu, integrating meteorological data (Kenya Met Department), river levels, and Lake Victoria levels. Disseminate warnings through diverse channels: SMS, local radio stations (Luo and Swahili), community elders, churches/mosques, and trained community volunteers. Ensure warnings are clear, actionable, and culturally appropriate.
     • Community Preparedness Training: Conduct regular, localized drills and training sessions in flood-prone areas on evacuation routes, building emergency kits (food, water, medicine, documents), first aid, and basic rescue techniques. Establish community-level disaster response teams.
     • Pre-positioning of Resources: Create strategically located, accessible caches of emergency supplies (tents, blankets, purification tablets, medical supplies) in elevated, secure school compounds or community centers.
     • Develop Comprehensive Evacuation Plans: Clearly map out safe evacuation routes and identify designated, safe temporary shelters (e.g., higher ground schools, community halls) with adequate sanitation and water facilities.
3. Response (Actions During and Immediately After):
   • Lessons Learned: Response is often delayed, uncoordinated, and lacks adequate resources.
   • Recommendations:
     • Establish a Multi-Agency Coordination Center (MACC): Operationalize a MACC at the County level during flood events, bringing together representatives from the County Disaster Management Unit, Kenya Red Cross, security agencies, health services, and key NGOs for real-time information sharing and coordinated resource deployment.
     • Rapid Needs Assessment Teams: Deploy trained teams immediately post-flood to conduct rapid assessments of damages, displaced populations, and critical needs, ensuring aid is targeted effectively.
     • Leverage Local Assets: Train and equip local community volunteers and existing youth groups (e.g., Scouts, NYS) for initial search and rescue, first aid, and aid distribution within their familiar areas.
     • Logistics Hubs: Establish forward logistics hubs on higher ground near affected areas to facilitate faster distribution of aid. Use local boats and skilled navigators where roads are impassable.
4. Recovery (Building Back Better):
   • Lessons Learned: Recovery is often short-sighted, leading to rebuilding vulnerability. Lack of psychosocial support.
   • Recommendations:
     • “Build Back Better” Principle: Integrate flood-resilient construction standards (raised foundations, appropriate materials, improved drainage around structures) into all rebuilding efforts. Provide technical assistance and incentives for resilient reconstruction.
     • Livelihood Diversification & Support: Implement programs to help affected communities diversify their livelihoods beyond solely flood-vulnerable agriculture. This could include vocational training, micro-finance for small businesses, or promoting drought-resistant crops in suitable areas.
     • Psychosocial Support Services: Provide sustained psychosocial support and counseling for affected individuals and families, especially children, to address trauma and foster mental well-being during the long recovery process.
     • Long-Term Monitoring & Evaluation: Establish mechanisms to monitor the effectiveness of mitigation and recovery initiatives. Regularly collect data on flood impacts, community resilience indicators, and the success of adopted strategies to inform future planning and resource allocation.