Pam is a healthcare administration leader for a large network of hospitals and health service centers that is attempting to predict future healthcare utilization at their centers over the next 5 years. She obtains data regarding patient use across the hospital network and health service centers and projects forward over the next 5 years to determine which areas might experience continued growth. After applying her time series model, she is able to demonstrate that, indeed, the hospital network and health service centers will experience significant growth. As she prepares to share her results and findings with the board, she also considers advocating for the development of a new regional health service center to fill one of the areas that will experience the most growth according to her forecast projections.
As a current or future healthcare administration leader, you may be asked to assess strategic planning and decision-making using time series analysis.
For this Discussion, reflect on time series models and forecasting. Think about how you might implement these methods for healthcare administration practice.
Post a description of some variables that you might evaluate using time series in your health services organization or one with which you are familiar. Then, explain what types of models might be most appropriate to measure, and analyze these variables. Be specific, and provide examples.
Time Series in Health Care
Time series forecasting occurs when you make scientific predictions based on historical time stamped data. It involves building models through historical analysis and using them to make observations and drive future strategic decision-making. The more comprehensive the data we have, the more accurate the forecasts can be. Time series analysis involves developing models to gain an understanding of the data to understand the underlying causes. Analysis can provide the “why” behind the outcomes you are seeing. Forecasting then takes the next step of what to do with that knowledge and the predictable extrapolations of what might happen in the future.
Folklore plays an enormous role in the formation not only of a sense of national identity, but of personal identity too – as children, many of us grow up listening to folktales involving talking animals, wicked witches, supernatural beings and magical powers, and these tales tend significantly influence our development. They can be moralizing or purely aesthetic: regardless, folktales capture the imagination and instil a sense of wonder in the listener, continuing an ancient oral tradition that links us to our ancestors. Many of the elements of folklore and the folktale are shared between cultures – the supernatural, for example, or the enduring figure of the evil, ugly old witch – but Russia enjoys a particularly rich and vibrant body of work deriving from these influences. Although interest in the folktale (skazka, in Russian) and in folkloric influences only became truly prominent in the 19th century onwards, it has had an enormous impact upon the nation’s culture, particularly in the arts. Countless writers have produced both prose and verse that is permeated with folk influences, including Lermontov, Gogol’, Pushkin and Blok. The legacy of folklore is no less prominent in the musical world of the mid-nineteenth to early-twentieth centuries: operas and orchestral works composed by the likes of Mussorgsky, Stravinsky, Rimsky-Korsakov and Liadov draw upon many aspects of folk music and archetypal characters from the skazka. This essay will examine the interaction and interdependence of these art forms, their shared roots in Slavic mythology, and the scale of the impact of these influences on modern Russian culture, with particular regard to music.
The mythological roots of Russian folklore
Many of the elements of Russian folklore can be traced back to their roots in the ritualistic pagan beliefs of the ancient Slavs; across Russia, what is now modern-day Ukraine, and other Slavic nations. Unlike the Greeks, Romans, and other peoples, not much is known about the beliefs or mythology of the prehistoric Slavs, and concrete evidence of this was only discovered in the 1st and 2nd centuries A.D. However, the sheer vastness of Russia and the surrounding areas, and the diversity of the people who inhabited them, means that these tribes were home to a real wealth of religious customs and beliefs. Invasion and occupation by groups such as the Scythian, Sarmatian, and Germanic peoples, as well as contact with the nomadic Iranian Scyths and Celtic tribes, had a significant linguistic, religious and mythological impact upon the Slavonic peoples. Despite this huge diversity, Slavic tribes shared many common beliefs and rituals. Given that these peoples were surrounded by and subject to the forces of nature, an unrivalled power that they could not yet understand, it seems inevitable that they would revere and worship it. This worshipping of nature in all its forms