UMass Amherst Political Science 121 World Politics Fall 2021

          The results of the 26th meeting of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) ended with mixed results. Environmentalists thought the commitments were insufficient; many developing country governments thought the financial aid on offer is insufficient and should include money earmarked for repairing damage caused by severe storms; many governments were disappointed by the late-conference decision to substitute “phase down” for “phase out” using coal as a fuel in the final agreement. Write a 450-500 word paper explaining the domestic considerations that inhibit one of the following countries – China, the USA, Russia, or India – from making the levels of commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions that atmospheric scientists (including members of the UN’s IPCC) believe are necessary to keeping the average atmosphere temperature within 1.5⁰C of the pre-industrial level. Background News Stories (with citations to links this time) 1. How China’s Deal with the U.S. Helped Avert COP-26’s Collapse. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-14/how-china-s-deal-with-the-u-s-helpedavert-cop26-s-collapse It was Day 13 of the COP26 summit, and even the trees inside the Glasgow venue were beginning to wilt. With the meeting running almost 24 hours over its scheduled time and the final outcome hanging in the balance, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, huddled together deep in conversation. At one point Kerry grasped Xie’s shoulder, while China’s lead negotiator nodded and smiled as he enumerated points on his fingers. t was a candid moment between two longtime climate diplomats that belied the global rivalry, hinting at the possibility for collaboration ahead of Monday’s virtual meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. It came three days after a joint U.S.-China agreement in Glasgow that Jochen Flasbarth, who headed Germany’s delegation at COP26, described as the summit’s “high point.” Yet if that deal was the peak, the low point for many delegates also involved China, as it aligned with India to secure a last-minute change to the conference conclusions on coal, watering down the language calling for an end to its use. China -- the world’s biggest emitter -- was the main driver behind the push, according to several country representatives. And the U.S. let it go. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 2 Backstage Showdown The final text contains the first ever reference to fossil fuels in a quarter century of COP summits. But China’s intervention -- via India -- effectively undermined COP26 President Alok Sharma’s goal to “consign coal to history.” Sharma, the U.S., the European Union, India and China went backstage to thrash out the line on fossil fuel subsidies, according to a senior EU official. China threatened to dig in and take down the talks, and the U.S. deal was what stopped it from pushing too hard and scuppering the whole summit, the official said. The U.S. had in any case signaled its acceptance of the weaker language in question, according to a separate person familiar with its stance. The result was that the world’s three biggest polluters -- China, India and the U.S. -- overrode the concerns of the vulnerable nations most at risk of climate change. Places like the Maldives, whose president, Ibrahim Solih, was among the many representatives of small and island states who traveled thousands of miles to appeal for help to avert an existential threat. “What will it take for you to listen to us?” he demanded. An email sent to the Chinese delegation seeking a response went unanswered on Sunday. Sharma, in an interview with the BBC, said that China and India will have to “justify” themselves to vulnerable nations. ‘Pulse is Weak’ The eleventh-hour drama reflected the fundamental disconnect between national interest and painful action needed to save the planet that detracted from a sense of historic progress made at the two-week United Nations climate conference. Success at COP26 was always going to be subjective. Delegates said the outcome, known as the Glasgow Climate Pact, was flawed but pushed the boundaries of what was possible. The summit also concluded rules on global carbon markets and commitments to toughen up national climate plans, maintaining the key goal of limiting global warming relative to pre-industrial levels to 1.5 degrees Celsius. “We can now say with credibility that we have kept 1.5 degrees alive,” Sharma said in the closing plenary session on Saturday, fighting back tears. “But, its pulse is weak.” Expectations of participants going into the meeting were raised by science showing the unequivocal impact of climate change, with the last seven years the hottest on record. Global protests at the emergency facing the planet piled on pressure. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 3 Energy Crisis Yet even as activists demanded immediate and drastic action to try and save the planet from catastrophic warming, it was clear that the political and economic calculations for governments were more complex. Outside realities intruded from Day One, as COP26 opened against the backdrop of an energy crisis that has seen gas prices at record highs and surging demand for coal. Saudi Arabia was painted by activists and NGOs as the villain for much of the summit, prompting an outburst by Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman rejecting accusations that his country had been the main block on progress as “a cheat and a lie.” In the end, the world’s largest oil exporter was content to stay out of the argument over coal and let China and India take the flak, according to a person familiar with the events. Russia, too, stayed out of the line of fire. For Riyadh, the key was that the focus was on coal rather than oil. Domestic Politics U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm attended only to be asked about oil prices and whether Biden was going to release America’s strategic reserves, after OPEC+ nations led by Saudi Arabia snubbed the president’s call to pump more crude. China hit fresh records for daily coal production during the course of the talks. Biden’s limited ability to secure his climate goals has been graphically illustrated by his dependence for passage of key legislation on Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of coal-producing West Virginia. And with Xi laying the ground for an unprecedented third term next year, domestic considerations were always to the fore for China’s delegation. While Biden brought little new to Glasgow, at least he attended. Xi and Vladimir Putin of Russia were among the high-profile no shows, as political developments elsewhere threatened to overshadow the talks. Still, the U.S.-China agreement announced Nov. 10, which outlined efforts to raise climate action in this decade, was the product of protracted diplomacy, with more than 30 meetings over the space of 10 months, including virtual visits as well as sessions in London, China and Glasgow. Warm Rapport Kerry and Xie have developed a rapport over years, and the atmosphere at their meetings was described by China as very good. During lengthy talks, they shifted easily from casual, warm conversation about family to in-depth exchanges on climate, said a U.S. person familiar with the negotiations. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 4 They met almost every day in Glasgow before the joint statement. With negotiating teams working on two tracks -- one focusing on the formal COP26 talks and another focused on forging their bilateral statement -- it was quite taxing, according to a senior U.S. official. Not as taxing as for the Chinese side, though. China didn’t have a government-backed pavilion this year, due to Covid worries, and people familiar said it was one of the delegation’s top objectives to not get Covid in Glasgow. With 40,000 registered participants, COP26 was among the largest UN climate summits ever. Whereas several members of the U.S. team stayed in a hotel next door to the conference venue, the Chinese delegation failed to secure accommodation for everyone in Glasgow, and many had to make the hourlong commute from Edinburgh before dawn each morning. Room Roulette With negotiators working as late as 5 a.m., any room they were able to secure in Glasgow on any given day was allocated to the person with the most important mission, according to two people familiar with the delegation’s activities. Kerry spoke with a hoarse voice on Tuesday after a late-night negotiating session he said ran to 3 a.m. that morning. The deal was announced the following evening. Only a small circle of negotiators were read in to the U.S.-China talks, so that it came as a surprise to some other nations notified about an hour before the joint statement was issued, according to a person familiar with the process. The EU’s climate chief, Frans Timmermans, was one of those notified one hour before. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as the summit host, arrived earlier that day to urge delegations to show more ambition -- only for his calls to be drowned out within a matter of hours by the U.S.-China announcement. For all the choreography, within 48 hours a senior Communist Party official in Beijing was rowing back. Briefing reporters on China’s climate commitments, Han Wenxiu said it was necessary to avoid “rushing for success,” and invoked the Great Leap Forward, Mao’s campaign of rapid economic and social change that resulted in millions of deaths. ‘Climate Guy’ China needs to learn the lessons of that era, “and move forward one step at a time to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and in promoting common prosperity,” said Han. Kerry said the key to the U.S.-China talks was being “honest about the differences” between them and staying scrupulously focused on the subject matter of COP without being derailed by other tensions. “My job is to be the climate guy,” he said. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 5 Throughout the summit, there were bleak assessments from those on the front line, who pointed out that scientists gave the world 98 months to halve global emissions. It was a message taken up by NGOs and activists including Greta Thunberg, who dismissed the proceedings as “greenwash.” With Covid-related restrictions leading to long queues, the organizers were accused of keeping out campaigners and making COP26 unnecessarily exclusive. An estimated 100,000 people marched through Glasgow last weekend at the summit’s midway point to demand urgent climate action. “Young people say there’s a lot of ‘blah, blah, blah’ here,” said Wang Yi, a member of China’s delegation, channeling Thunberg. “To some degree it’s true.” How the summit outcome is perceived probably matters less than the concrete actions nations take once their delegations are back home. As Slovakia’s president, Zuzana Caputova, said: “The carbon footprint from the planes we arrive on cannot be the only output.” — With assistance by Jennifer A Dlouhy, Karoline Kan, John Ainger, Javier Blas, Lucille Liu, Iain Rogers, and Jess Shankleman 2. BBC News Analysis of COP-26 (appears below the lead story at https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59280241) Stephen McDonnell, BBC China Correspondent China teaming up with India to water down the language will have come as something of a blow to those who wanted a much more ambitious outcome at the conference. However - perhaps they should not be too pessimistic about the final agreement. For example, here in Beijing the Communist Party's media mouthpiece Xinhua wire service is already stressing in its commentaries that coal is "the dominant source of carbon dioxide emissions in the process of electricity generation". It may sound like that is just stating the obvious - but such wording from Xinhua represents a transmission of the party line across the country: coal is the biggest part of the problem! Beijing knows that ultimately the writing is on the wall for coal, but it's the speed of its phase out which matters to the Chinese government. It believes that the most developed countries got the world into this problem in the first place - enriching themselves along the way - so now argues that countries like China need to be cut more slack to catch up. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 6 What's also being stressed here from the Chinese delegation has been the perceived shortfall from advanced countries to deliver on their promises to provide finance and technological support for developing countries to help them move to cleaner energy. Vice Minister Zhao Yingmin, who headed China's team in Glasgow, said he hoped developed countries could "make further efforts to honour their commitments, enhancing support for developing countries, instead of merely urging other parties to raise their ambitions". 3. India, China, and 20 other Nations are Dead Set against COP-26 Draft on Climate Mitigation: Here’s Why https://www.news18.com/news/india/india-china-and-20-other-nations-are-dead-set-againstcop26-draft-on-climate-mitigation-heres-why-4433636.html In the fiercest opposition to the Glasgow climate summit’s draft agreement published Wednesday, Bolivia’s chief negotiator Diego Pacheco said his country and 21 other allied nations, which includes India and China, oppose the entire section on climate change mitigation. The group, which calls itself Like Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs) and includes Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Iran, Indonesia, and Malaysia among others, accused the developed countries of attempting to shift responsibility to the rest of the world and imposing new rules. The group has requested that the entire section on enhancing mitigation actions be changed. This section contains all of the agreement’s language on reducing emissions, including a recognition that the world should aim to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which scientists say is required to avoid the worst climate impacts. The countries’ main point of contention, according to Pacheco, was urging everyone to raise their emission targets for COP27 by the end of 2022. He argued that developing countries should not be held to the same standards as rich countries, which have historically played a larger role in the climate crisis. He also accused rich countries of attempting to “transfer responsibility" to the Global South, CNN reported. “History matters and history is very important to understand and to put in the context in the discussion on ambition," he said, adding that it “would be impossible for many countries in the group to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century (2050)." Pacheco called the draft the “new carbon colonialism" and said the 2050 net zero targets being “forced" on developing countries, while ignoring the developed world’s historical responsibilities as well as the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) enshrined in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), according to reports. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 7 Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had earlier at the summit announced India’s pledge to become a net-zero emissions country by 2070, had also talked about climate finance in his speech. He had called for developed nations to fulfil the promised $1 trillion as climate finance, saying this should be tracked the same way as climate mitigation. “India expects developed countries to make $1 trillion available as climate finance as soon as possible. As we track the progress of climate mitigation, we must also track climate finance. Justice would truly be served if pressure is put on those countries that have not lived up to their climate finance commitments," Modi had said. India has repeatedly called for richer and developed nations to take increased responsibility in mitigating the climate crisis, while assisting developing nations towards their goals. After the recently-held G20 Summit, Union Minister Piyush Goyal had said that developed nations that have already enjoyed the fruits of low-cost energy must aim to achieve net zero much faster in order to help the developing countries pursue their development goals. India’s G20 Sherpa had also expressed satisfaction at the language of the summit’s communique “confirming that the developed world has acknowledged that they have not done enough in terms of meeting their commitments". According to a report released this week by Climate Action Tracker, even with all of the pledges made at COP26, the world is on track for 2.4 degrees of warming. Closing that gap will necessitate significant and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, according to the latest UN climate science report. However, this comes at a cost, and there are valid reasons for developing countries to be dissatisfied. Climate change affects more developing countries than wealthy ones, and they collectively played a much smaller role in causing the crisis. A report by CNN states that rich countries agreed more than a decade ago to transfer $100 billion per year to developing countries to assist them in transitioning to low-carbon economies and adapting to the climate crisis. Not only has the developed world failed to meet the $100 billion target by 2020, but developing countries claim it is insufficient in the first place. They also want a 50-50 split between mitigation and adaptation (measures to reduce emissions). Far more money has flowed to emission-cutting measures. Talks Headed for Rocky Conclusion Countries at the UN climate summit are hardly any closer to agreement on the last day of the summit, over whether national emissions cutting plans must be ramped up in the short term, how climate action is reported, and how vulnerable nations are supported, AFP said in a report. “The truth is that the atmosphere doesn’t care about commitments," said Ugandan youth activist Vanessa Nakate. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 8 “It only cares about what we put into it or stop putting into it. Humanity will not be saved by promises." Draft decision texts urged countries to speed up their decarbonisation plans and submit renewed contributions by 2022, three years sooner than planned. They also included a rare mention of fossil fuels — anathema to large hydrocarbon producers but a key ask of the European Union and other advanced economies. Host Britain says it wants COP26 to lead to commitments from countries to keep the 1.5C temperature cap goal of the Paris agreement within reach. However, current national emissions cutting plans, all told, would lead to 2.7C of heating. UN Secretary Antonio Guterres said Thursday that countries’ climate plans were “hollow" without commitments to rapidly phase out fossil fuels. 4. COP26 reveals limits of Biden’s promise to “lead by example’ on climate crisis Oliver Milman The Guardian 12 Nov 2021 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/12/biden-promised-lead-climate-crisiscop26-revealed-limits The crucial UN climate talks in Scotland have produced landmark commitments to phase out coalmining, to call time on the internal combustion engines and to compensate poorer countries for damage caused by the climate crisis. The United States, which has trumpeted its regained climate leadership at the summit, has not joined any these pledges as the talks draw to a close. This disconnect has provided the world with a muddled sense of America’s willingness to confront the unfolding climate catastrophe, with the fate of historic legislation to lower planetheating emissions still uncertain ahead of an expected vote in Congress next week. Joe Biden arrived in Glasgow vowing the US will “lead by example” on climate change and avoid disastrous global heating beyond 1.5C, dispatching his entire cabinet to the Cop26 talks and making widely praised new promises to cut methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and to end deforestation. Two dozen Democratic lawmakers wearing congressional lapel pins have swept the conference venue this week, all expressing confidence that the vast $1.75tn spending bill will pass back home. “This is the most ambitious climate legislation of all time,” Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, told the summit. “America is back and is ready to lead,” added Kathy Castor, chair of the House Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 9 select committee on the climate crisis. “Once we pass this historic package, finally, it will help keep 1.5C alive.” But the US is bedeviled by its recent past and – many delegates of other countries fear – its potential future, following Donald Trump’s embrace of climate science denialism and American isolationism. “We have not recovered our moral authority,” admitted Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive New York representative, when asked about the specter of the former president. “I believe we are making steps, but we have to actually deliver the action in order to get the respect internationally. It’s that simple.” There is also mounting criticism that Biden’s actions have not matched his words and that the US president’s negotiators haven’t pushed hard enough for an ambitious deal in Glasgow to secure the deep emissions cuts needed to avoid disastrous warming that will spur ever-worsening floods, heatwaves and wildfires. More than 40 countries announced at Cop26 a promise to end the mining of coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels, although the US was conspicuously absent from the list. “It’s very disappointing because the science is quite clear that we have to turn sharply away from coal this decade if we are going to meet our climate goals,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “We need very clear signals that orientate the US towards clean energy,” she added. “The climate crisis is too dire to just wait for coal to fall out. It’s just another signal of the sway the fossil fuel industry still has over US politics.” Despite its attempts to expand the rollout of electric vehicles, the Biden administration has also declined to set an end date for the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars, unlike the UK, European Union, Canada, India and a slew of other countries at Cop26. Its delegation in Glasgow is similarly wary of a push to provide “loss and damage” payments to countries vulnerable to climate impacts and has sought to shift criticism towards the inaction of China and Russia, although the US and China did unveil an unexpected plan to work together on cutting emissions, despite the enmity between the two countries. This reticence, critics claim, undermines Biden’s credibility on climate. Others say the dysfunctional nature of Congress, where sweeping climate legislation to expand renewable energy and wind down fossil fuels is effectively in the hands of a senator who derives most of his income from investments in coal, is to blame. “There is a handful of members of Congress who represent coal-intensive parts of the country who see [climate action] as a threat to their region,” Sean Casten, a Democratic representative, told the Guardian. “It’s kept the president from doing all that he’d like to do.” Pete Buttigieg, the US transport secretary, told the Guardian that the Biden administration aims to give Americans better public transit options, as well as electric vehicle rebates and Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 10 infrastructure, but that “each country is on its own path” to ending the age of fossil fuel-powered cars. “What we are talking about is a race to the ambitious targets the president has set,” Buttigieg said, adding that the goal of half of all car sales being electric by 2030 will be in itself a “massive lift”. Biden will face further scrutiny almost immediately after some sort of deal is struck in Glasgow, not only over the fate of the Build Back Better bill but also his issuance of permits for oil and gas drilling. An auction of 80m acres of the Gulf of Mexico seabed, an area larger than the UK, will be offered to fossil fuel companies next week, while a new report has warned that the oil and gas that will be burned in the Permian Basin, a geological formation in the south-west US, by 2050 will release nearly 40bn tons of carbon dioxide, nearly a tenth of the remaining global “carbon budget” to stay under 1.5C. “If the Biden administration wants to be serious about its promise to demonstrate US climate leadership, it must first clean up its own back yard,” said Steven Feit, senior attorney at the Center for International Environmental Law. “The Permian Basin is the single largest fracking basin globally, and the continued reckless pursuit of oil extraction from New Mexico to the Gulf coast is the ultimate display of hypocrisy.” 5. India’s need for cheap fuel behind its push for compromise on coal at COP26 https://www.france24.com/en/environment/20211115-india-s-need-for-cheap-fuel-behind-pushfor-compromise-on-coal-at-cop26 Even as its capital was blanketed by toxic smog, India led the charge to weaken anti-coal pledges at the COP26 summit, with experts saying it is prioritising its economic growth over the planet's future. The world's third-largest emitter teamed up with China to water down language on fossil fuels at the Glasgow conference, forcing a compromise: a climate deal that bound countries to "phase down" but not "phase out" coal use. India's resistance to more ambitious curbs on dirty energy is driven by its need for cheap fuel to power a booming economy and lift hundreds of millions of its citizens out of entrenched poverty. "We have a huge population which has still not reached a basic minimum standard of living," Samrat Sengupta, a climate change expert with the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment, told AFP. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 11 Coal consumption has nearly doubled in the last decade -- only China burns more -- and the fuel still powers 70 percent of India's electricity grid. The government has dragged its feet on tougher regulations for coal plants and just last year announced a series of commercial mining auctions to boost domestic production. Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to weaning his country off coal, but told Glasgow delegates India would only aim to be carbon-neutral by 2070 -- a decade after China and 20 years after the world's other big emitters. But without decisive action sooner, experts warn India's emissions will soar in coming years and scuttle worldwide efforts to rein in global warming. ‘Stiff target to meet’ The effects of India's fossil fuel addiction are already keenly felt, with a shroud of thick grey haze enveloping New Delhi each winter. Coal plant emissions and vehicle exhaust fumes combine with smoke from farm fires to choke the megacity's 20 million residents. On the same day that COP26 delegates were finalising the global climate accord, Delhi shut its schools for a week to keep children inside. Smog is blamed for more than a million deaths in India annually, and a recent University of Chicago study found that air pollution was likely to reduce life expectancy by more than nine years for four in every 10 Indians. Modi's government aims to mitigate the problem by scaling up renewables, pledging to make solar power as big a share of the energy mix as coal by the end of the decade. But India lacks the high-tech capacity to meet demand for solar panels and relies heavily on expensive components from abroad. It has tried to spur domestic manufacturing of solar tech by hiking import duties, raising the cost of renewable energy. The 2030 solar goal "is a huge and a very stiff target to meet", said Sengupta of the Centre for Science and Environment. "It requires a lot of cheap finance and technologies to be made available." ‘Immense disappointment’ India has long argued that historical polluters such as the United States and Europe are obligated to provide the technical expertise and funding for climate mitigation. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 12 Its environment minister told COP26 delegates on Saturday that developing countries were "entitled to the responsible use of fossil fuels". Bhupender Yadav said nations with little historical responsibility for climate change should not be held to the same standards as the world's biggest per-capita emitters. "In such a situation, how can anyone expect developing countries to make promises of phasing out coal and fossil fuel subsidies?" he asked. The weakened COP26 commitment was adopted with deep reluctance by other nations, which were anxious to get the deal over the line after two weeks of marathon negotiations. Other developing nations -- including Pacific island countries facing the existential threat of rising sea levels as a result of global warming -- bristled at the suggestion that India's last-minute intervention was done on their behalf. Fiji's attorney general Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum expressed "not just our astonishment, but immense disappointment in the manner in which this has been introduced". 6. What can we expect from Russia at COP26? We ask experts whether the Kremlin’s latest moves on climate, including its 2060 net-zero target, heralds genuine change or more greenwash Natalie Sauer 28 October 2021, 7.23am https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/what-can-we-expect-from-russia-at-cop26/ Russia has been seen as a climate pariah by the international community for some years. It was one of the last countries to ratify the 2015 Paris Agreement – not until September 2019, at the UN’s Climate Action Summit. At the time, few would have expected to see the ambitious declarations made by Russia this year. In April, Vladimir Putin asked his cabinet to produce a plan to cut carbon emissions below the level of the EU by 2050. In July, the Russian president signed legislation that requires the country’s largest companies to report their greenhouse gas emissions – a move hailed as the first step towards carbon regulation. In September, a two-year decarbonisation strategy budget was launched. Finally, two weeks ago, Putin stunned observers by committing Russia to a target of net zero by 2060 – the same as China and, most recently, Saudi Arabia. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 13 “This target means we can now head to Glasgow without shame,” Alexey Kokorin, climate lead at WWF Russia, told the Russian business daily Kommersant. Indeed, some Russian commentators have expressed surprise at Putin’s change in rhetoric. The Russian president once used to laugh off climate change as an opportunity to boost crop yields, but now acknowledges the “grave challenges” it poses to the country. “Climate change denial is over,” opined prominent foreign policy commentator Dmitry Trenin, who described the 2060 target as a sign of a “sea change” in the Kremlin’s thinking. Russia is hardly on the cusp of an ecological revolution, but could the world’s fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitter be finally falling in line with global decarbonisation trends? And might this herald a change in attitude at COP26? Net zero by 2060 Russia could aim to slash its greenhouse gas emissions by 79% from current levels by 2050, according to Kommersant, which has seen the draft of the new net-zero strategy. Under the strategy’s “intense scenario” of Russian climate change policy, the country’s emissions are set to peak by 2030, rising only by 0.6%. By comparison, Russia’s previous plan would have seen emissions increase through 2050 and not drop to net zero for another 80 years, until 2100. But expert opinion is cautious about how far Russia’s green turn really goes. Bobo Lo, an associate research fellow at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), says that “Fossil fuels are Russia’s great comparative advantage, and it is unthinkable to me that it would voluntarily give this up.” “Saying is one thing, doing is quite another!” he adds. Lo pointed out that Russia’s 2035 Energy Strategy currently forecasts a 50% increase in gas production to 2035, and the 2035 Coal Production Strategy also envisages a surge in coal production. “How is any of this compatible with a net-zero commitment? It isn’t, but then again 2060 is a long way away,” Lo says. “By that time, these commitments will have been overtaken by events.” Russian energy minister Nikolay Shulginov told the Russian Energy Week forum two weeks ago that the 2060 net-zero target meant that the country would have to diversify its energy mix and revise the 2035 Energy Strategy. But rather than a genuine ecological transition, Lo reads Russia’s new commitment as an attempt to “be seen as an upstanding member of the international community”, noting that it’s important for the Russian leadership not to be “an outlier at a time when there is broad consensus on the threat global warming poses”. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 14 “It’s easy to pluck figures out of the air and pretend they will be realised,” he says. Maria Pastukhova, a senior policy adviser at European think tank E3G, told openDemocracy that a genuine shift is happening in Russia’s climate policy. “No, it is not a mere facade and will definitely affect the existing energy strategy,” she says. Pastukhova predicts that Russia will shift towards nuclear and large-scale hydroelectric energy, with a greater emphasis on energy efficiency and an accelerated transition from coal to gas in the power sectors. However, she advises caution on one point: Russia’s 2060 pledge does not account for exported emissions – and the country’s fossil fuel industry is currently eyeing the Asian market. At the very event where Putin unveiled the net-zero target, the Russian energy ministry also agreed to boost exports of coking coal to India by up to 40 million tonnes per year. Vasily Yablokov, head of energy at Greenpeace Russia, agreed that much work lies ahead to adapt Russia’s strategies to climate goals. “The risk remains that Russia’s fossil fuel industry lobby will not give up state support overnight or even in the medium term,” he says. “They will argue, among other things, that [cutting state support] will lead to increased social problems and even a failure to meet the UN’s sustainable development goals, where, for example, goal eight aims to promote economic growth,” Yablokov notes. Disruption to discretion? At best, Russia has tended to keep a low profile at climate negotiations. At worst, it has teamed up with other petrostates to obstruct climate action. At UN climate talks only three years ago, Russia allied with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the US to tone down references to the IPCC’s landmark 1.5°C report, which suggested that limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C could help avoid some of the worst effects of climate change. The country has also systematically dragged its feet to endorse climate treaties, from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol (ratified in 2004) to the 2015 Paris Agreement (ratified in 2019). Rarer instances when Russia has taken a progressive stance have required incentives – such as the prospect of burnishing its ‘great power’ status or embarrassing a foe. For example, it made ratification of the Kyoto Protocol conditional on Russia’s membership of the World Trade Organization. Likewise, at an Arctic Council meeting in 2019, Russia joined other states in recognising climate change as a threat to the region – while the Trump White House refused to do so. COP26 is billed as the most important COP since Paris in 2015, with the rules of the Paris Agreement – the ‘Paris rulebook’, for short – and climate finance for developing countries among the most pressing negotiations. Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 15 For some, Putin’s recent announcement that he would not attend the summit already suggests that Russia’s green metamorphosis is lacking. “You can read [Putin’s absence] in two ways,” IFRI’s Lo says. “One: the Russian delegation announces some radical initiative which Putin, being absent, feels no obligation to stick to. Two: they go with the 2060 goal, which will either be unenforceable and/or irrelevant. Either way, the Russian government is completely committed to maximising its comparative advantages in fossil fuels.” Pashtukhova, from E3G, begs to differ. She believes Putin’s absence is partly because President Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, is not attending: “I’m certain, had [Xi] attended, Putin would have been there as well.” However, the analyst also sees the president’s non-attendance as part of a Kremlin strategy to pressure the West into lifting sanctions that are damaging the green transition and the Russian economy. Russia’s majority state-owned gas company Gazprom, for example, is still under sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for the war in Ukraine. Indeed, Russian climate envoy Ruslan Edelgeriyev has signalled that the issue of sanctions is paramount. Pastukhova points out that the Russian state bank VEB is responsible for drafting the country’s green taxonomy (a classification system for sustainable development) and is currently under sanctions. “No discussion about [Russia’s] green finance can avoid the need to lift sanctions – at least on the ‘green’ part of finance,” she says. Pledges and deadlines It’s the same for the Global Methane Pledge set to be launched at Glasgow by the EU and US. Although Russia is one of the world’s largest methane emitters – not least because of its creaking pipeline infrastructure – it has already indicated that it will not join the pledge until its gas and oil industry can access technology and finance that it is currently barred from. As for the Paris rulebook, the subject of deadlines for climate pledge updates is crucial. Vulnerable countries are pushing for goals to be revised every five years from 2031, arguing that shorter time spans encourage greater ambition. However, at the last COP, in Madrid in 2019, Russia argued for a ten-year timeframe because it better suited its national planning. Delegates will also discuss the UN’s carbon offset scheme, the so-called Sustainable Development Mechanism. This allows countries to fund greenhouse gas emissions-reducing projects in other countries and then claim the saved emissions as part of their own efforts to honour climate pledges. Here, Russia is expected to attempt to monetise its vast forests. In a submission in October, the country appears to be pushing to extend the crediting periods for forestry activities, in a bid to Political Science 121 Unit Paper 5 assignment Fall 2021 page 16 attract private investment in forest management. It is also pushing for lax carbon accounting rules. Finally, according to Yablokov and Pastukhova, it is unlikely that Russia will deliver on climate finance for developing countries. COP26 president Alok Sharma has described climate finance as “an absolute priority”. He hopes to make developed countries abide by their 2009 pledge to give vulnerable countries $100bn a year to help them adapt to the impacts of a warming planet. But referring to the West’s failed promises – such as climate finance – Russian climate envoy Ruslan Edelgeriyev recently stressed that “Russia will not take unequal steps.” We will see if Putin’s Russia walks the talk in Glasgow.