Jared Diamond, in his seminal work “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed,” meticulously examines the environmental and societal factors that contribute to the collapse or success of past and present civilizations. He posits that “disastrous decisions” often stem from a complex interplay of factors, rather than a single cause.

Reasons Why Societies Make “Disastrous Decisions,” According to Diamond

Diamond identifies several interlocking reasons why societies make “disastrous decisions,” often leading to their collapse or severe decline:

1. Failure to Anticipate a Problem:

   • Societies may not even perceive an environmental problem as it’s emerging. This can be due to a lack of observable data, the slow pace of environmental change (which makes it hard to notice in real-time), or a lack of scientific understanding.
   • Example: Early Polynesian settlers on Easter Island might not have initially grasped the long-term consequences of deforestation on soil erosion and resource availability.

2. Failure to Perceive a Problem (Once it has Arisen):

   • Even if a problem is present, a society might fail to recognize it. This could be because the changes are so gradual that they become the “new normal,” or because people are too busy with immediate survival needs to notice broader environmental degradation.
   • Example: The gradual salinization of agricultural land in ancient Mesopotamia, which slowly reduced crop yields but might not have been immediately attributed to irrigation practices.

3. Failure to Attempt to Solve a Problem (Once it has been Perceived):

   • Sometimes societies acknowledge a problem but fail to act. This can be due to:
     • Vested Interests: Powerful groups or individuals benefit from the destructive practices and resist change. They may prioritize short-term profits or power over long-term sustainability.
     • “Tragedy of the Commons”: Individuals acting in their own self-interest deplete a shared limited resource, even when it’s against the group’s long-term interest.
     • “Creeping Normalcy” or “Landscape Amnesia”: Gradual changes become normalized over generations, making it hard to recognize how much the environment has degraded from a past, healthier state.
     • Conflicting Values: Deeply held societal values or religious beliefs might hinder adaptive change.
     • “Crowd Psychology”: Groupthink or a reluctance to deviate from established norms, even if those norms are destructive.
   • Example: