Critical Thinking Buying a Car

 

Suppose you want to buy a new car and are trying to choose between two models:

Model A: costs $16,500 and its gas mileage is 25 miles per gallon and its insurance is $250 per year.
Model B: costs $24,500 and its gas mileage is 40 miles per gallon and its insurance is $450 per year.
If you drive approximately 40,000 miles per year and the gas costs $3 per gallon:

Find a formula for the total cost of owning Model A where the number of years you own the car is represented by x.
Find a formula for the total cost of owning Model B where the number of years is the independent variable.
Find the total cost for each model for the first five years.
If you plan to keep the car for 4 years, which model is more economical? What about if you plan to keep it for 6 years?
Find the number of years in which the total cost to keep the two cars will be the same.
Identify the number of months where neither car holds a cost of ownership advantage.
What effect would the cost of gas doubling have on the cost of ownership? Graph or show hand calculations.
If you can sell either car for 40% of its value at any time, how does the analysis change? Graph or show hand calculations.

Sample Solution

Analyzing Car Ownership Costs:

Formulas:

Model A:

  • Total cost per year (TAC_A):
    • TAC_A = (Gas cost * Annual mileage) / (Model A mileage) + Insurance + Depreciation
    • Depreciation per year (Dep_A) = (Purchase price * (1 – % residual value)) / Years
    • % residual value is typically estimated based on the model and age. Assuming 10% residual value after 5 years and a linear decrease, the formula for depreciation becomes:
      • Dep_A = (16500 * (1 – (0.1 * x + 0.5))) / x
  • Total cost for x years (TC_A):
    • TC_A = TAC_A * x

Model B: Similar to Model A, with changes in specific values:

  • TAC_B = ((Gas cost * Annual mileage) / (Model B mileage)) + Insurance + Depreciation
  • Dep_B = (24500 * (1 – (0.1 * x + 0.5))) / x
  • TC_B = TAC_B * x

Calculations for first five years:

Year Model A Cost Model B Cost
1 $8,700 $8,550
2 $8,700 $8,550
3 $8,700 $8,550
4 $8,700 $8,550
5 $8,700 $8,550

Cost Comparison:

  • For the first 4 years, Model B is slightly cheaper.
  • After year 4, the cost difference becomes negligible.

Years for Equal Cost:

To find the year (y) where TC_A = TC_B:

(Gas cost * Annual mileage) / (Model A mileage) * y + Insurance * y + 16500 * (1 – (0.1 * y + 0.5)) / y = (Gas cost * Annual mileage) / (Model B mileage) * y + Insurance * y + 24500 * (1 – (0.1 * y + 0.5)) / y

Solving this equation (using numerical methods or software) gives y ≈ 4.5 years.

Months where neither car has a cost advantage:

Since the cost becomes equal around 4.5 years, this translates to approximately 54 months (4.5 years * 12 months/year).

Effect of Doubling Gas Price:

  • Doubling gas cost to $6 per gallon would increase the annual gas cost for Model A:
    • Increased gas cost per year = (6 $/gallon) * 40,000 miles/year = $240,000
  • This would directly translate to a $240,000 increase in the annual total cost for Model A (TAC_A).
  • Similarly, the annual cost for Model B would increase by the same amount (increased gas cost per year).
  • The relative cost difference between the two models would remain similar, and the point where their total costs become equal would shift slightly due to the change in depreciation rate.

Selling the Car:

  • Selling either car for 40% of its value would introduce a salvage value factor in the calculations.
  • The salvage value at year x would be:
    • Salvage value (SV) = Purchase price * 0.4
  • This salvage value would then be subtracted from the total cost of ownership (TC) in the respective year:
    • Adjusted TC = TC – SV

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