Decision Tree and Linear Programming

 

Decision Tree and Linear Programming. Please follow the instructions. In your Decision Tree, you must show the network or the decision tree of the problem. Your answers to the Linear Programming problem should be in an Excel Sheet showing the Answer Report, Sensitivity Report, and Limits Report.

Decision Tree and Linear programming
Chemicals, Inc. is a petroleum manufacturing plant located in the Middle East. It has been in existence over the past 15 years. They are currently working on their strategic plans for the year 2021 to 2026. The growth of export petroleum sales over the past couple of years has been good, but the sales could grow even more, if the planned high-tech oil refinery is built near the city where Chemicals, Inc. is located. Chemicals, Inc, is considering three strategies. First is to increase its current production operations, the second is to move closer to the proposed new oil refinery and the third is to do nothing. Strong growth as a result of the presence of the new oil refinery has a 55 percent probability and moving closer to it, would give annual returns of $390,000 per year. Weak growth however, would mean annual returns of $230,000. If nothing was done in the first year of 2021, and strong growth occurred, the strategy to increase its current production would be reconsidered. Strong growth with an increased production would give annual returns of $380,000 per year. Weak growth however would mean annual returns of $200,000. With no changes, there would be returns of $340,000 per year if there is strong growth and $210,000 per year if growth is weak. Increasing production will cost $ 174,000 and moving to a location closer to the refinery will cost $ 420,000. If growth is strong and the production is increased during the second year, the cost would also be $174,000. The cost to operate are the same for all strategies.
1. Decision Tree
You have been hired as a consultant by Chemicals. Inc. Construct a decision tree and advise Chemicals. Inc. on their best strategy to maximize their revenue.
2. Linear Programming
Following your recommended strategy. Chemicals, Inc. wanted to develop an improved aviation fuel to be used by commercial jets at minimal cost. The fuel is a mixture of two fuels (Avgas A and Avgas B). There are 4,000 gallons of Avgas A and 8,000 gallons of Avgas B available. It needs no fewer than 6,000 gallons to fuel a jet to its farthest destination which has a maximum fuel storage capacity of 8,000 gallons. The mixed fuel must have an octane rating of no less than 80. The octane rating is the weighted average of the individual octanes, weighted in proportion to the respective volumes. During mixture, the amount of Avgas obtained equals to the sum of the amounts put in. Avgas A has an octane of 90. and costs $2.40 per gallon. Avgas B has an octane of 75 and costs $1.80 per gallon. In presenting your findings to Chemicals, Inc., they would like to see:
A. The LINEAR PROGRAMMING equations with the constraints expressing this information.
B. Solutions to the Linear Program using Excel Solver and showing the:
a) Answer Report
b) Sensitivity Report
c) Limits Report

Sample Solution

With the rise of technology and the increasing number of hours that are spent on social media, targeted marketing has begun to thrive over the years. Targeted marketing is a form of advertising, including online, that is directed towards audiences with certain traits, based on the product or person the advertiser is promoting. These traits can either be demographic based on, economic, sex, age, the level of education, income level and employment or psychographic focused, based on consumer’s values, personality, attitudes, opinions, lifestyles and interests. Algorithms are put in place to sort this data that identifies consumers with specific needs or characteristics to match with appropriate products or brands. This sector of advertising started to grow exponentially, with an increasing potential to be in breach of the UK Code of Non-broadcast Advertising and Direct & Promotional Marketing rules about harassment. Figure 7 shows how divided the opinions of the public are about this method.

In 2018 GDPR came in to, providing the biggest overhaul of data law since the data protection act of 1998. It became a legal requirement for all companies to adhere to the regulations in place or face a heavy fine, this forced marketers to relinquish a lot of their dependence on behavioural data collection. Furthermore, it directly implicated several business practices that were at the heart of digital ad targeting at that time. ‘This year, we started to see the impact of a new age of data privacy, with a number of high-profile fines being issued under the GDPR, on top of a number of incidents of media owners misusing user data. Initiatives like Intelligent Tracking Protection have sent a clear message to advertisers: data needs to be handled appropriately, and personalisation should not come at the cost of user privacy.’(Gilbert,2019) Its vital advertisers are empathetic with their audiences concern over their privacy, I want to be part of the change from invasive to useful advertising methods in my own advertising career in the future.

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