forecast actual demand error
1Q 2019 215
2Q 2019 210
3Q 2019 220
4Q 2019 225
1Q 2020 255
2Q 2020 240
3Q 2020 260
4Q 2020 270
1Q 2021
1. Using the 4 quarter moving average: What is the forecast for 2Q 2020, 3Q 2020, 4Q 2020, and 1Q 2021
2. Compute the forecast for 2Q 2020, 3Q 2020, 4Q 2020, and 1Q 2021using exponential smoothing (start with 2Q 2020) with a smoothing factor of .6.
3. Which forecast method provides a more accurate forecast?
4. Compute the forecast for 2Q 2020, 3Q 2020, 4Q 2020, and 1Q 2021 using a weighted moving average technique. The most recent period (for 2Q 2020 that will be 1Q 2020) is weighted at .5, second most recent at .35, and 3rd most recent at .15.
5. Compare the results from 4 to the results from 1 and 2. Now which forecast provides the more accurate forecast?
6. If the exponential smoothing is calculated using a smoothing factor of .8 will the forecast error be smaller or larger?
Topographically, Ruritania is generally situated between domains that would have been called Saxony and Bohemia in Hope’s time. It has become a conventional term, both concrete and theoretical, for a nonexistent pre WW1 European realm utilized as the setting for sentiment, interest and the plots of experience books. Its name has been given to an entire type of composing, the Ruritanian sentiment, and it has spread outside writing to a wide range of other areas.4
This paper will examine Petru�elkov�’s (P) (1994 (1940))5 Czech form of the short-novel-length Biggles Goes To War (BGW; Biggles Let� na Jih (BLJ) in Czech), set in Maltovia, portrayed in plot as a little Ruritanian-type 6 nation with a German-type upper-
class found “somewhat toward the north-east of the Black Sea, depicted by its diplomat to London as “� ..just barely in Europe. � . Asia � . isn’t a long way from our eastern frontier”.7 Its classification echoes Hope’s somewhat, e.g., Max/Ludwig Stanhauser, von Nerthold, Janovica, Bethstein, Menkhoff, Vilmsky, Klein, Nieper, Gustav, and so on. Maltovia is undermined by its neighbor Lovitzna, a marginally bigger nation, additionally Ruritanian to the extent can be judged, depicted by the Maltovian diplomat as: “� another state, not huge, as nations in Europe go, yet bigger than we are.” Johns gives minimal enough genuine data on Maltovia, and even less on Lovitzna, in spite of the fact that the names he cites for the last nation, e.g., Zarovitch (the name of the decision administration), Hotel Stadplatz, Shavros, Stretta Barovsky, do extend a Ruritanian picture like that of Maltovia. Lovitzna is building up an aviation based armed forces with the help of European educators, and the story starts with the Maltovian diplomat in London asking Biggles, Algy, and Ginger to create one for Maltovia to counter the danger from Lovitzna.
BGW incorporates scenes, for example, e.g., Biggles telling a German pilot that local people “dislike us, you know, they are volatile (93; No. 17 underneath)”, which may have evoked unwelcome pictures and meanings among Czech perusers, particularly during the period when BGW and BLJ were first published.8 The arrangement picked by P to deal with such circumstances has been to go one little above and beyond than interpretation, and to transpose the story, moving Maltovia to some unclear spot in
Whittlesey 2012 sets up an exhaustive continuum for any exchange of any substance starting with one medium then onto the next, principally, however not only, including language to language, language to different mediums, e.g., pictures (films, kid’s shows, and so forth.) or from different mediums to different mediums, with interpretation, comprehended as in exactly the same words replication in the thin sense, at the one end, transposition including different degrees of free rendering of the source, and adjustment saw as the uttermost expelled from the source. He calls attention to that genuine interpretation in the thin sense he proposes is somewhat confined then again, with numerous guidelines: exclusions of words, expressions, and sentences, not to mention entire segments, is disliked, as are augmentations, or bends of the source or its purpose. Interpretations must summon a similar picture as the source messages and pass on their content.9 The exactness of an interpretation must be obvious, which is considerably less simple for transposition or adaptation.10