Time series are particularly useful to track variables such as revenues, costs, and profits over time. Time series models help evaluate performance and make predictions. Consider the following and respond in a minimum of 175 words:
Time series decomposition seeks to separate the time series (Y) into 4 components: trend (T), cycle (C), seasonal (S), and irregular (I). What is the difference between these components?
The model can be additive or multiplicative.When we do use an additive model? When do we use a multiplicative model?
The following list gives the gross federal debt(in millions of dollars) for the U.S. every 5 years from 1945 to 2000:
Year Gross Federal Debt ($millions)
1945 260,123
1950 256,853
1955 274,366
1960 290,525
1965 322,318
1970 380,921
1975 541,925
1980 909,050
1985 1,817,521
1990 3,206,564
1995 4,921,005
2000 5,686,338
Construct a scatter plot with this data. Do you observe a trend? If so, what type of trend do you observe?
Use Excel to fit a linear trend and an exponential trend to the data. Display the models and their respective r^2.
Interpret both models. Which model seems to be more appropriate? Why?
While thinking about premodern political idea and current political idea, the greatest distinction between the two is who is fit to lead and the idea of optimism versus authenticity. This is obvious in how the rationalists view the freedoms of the regular individuals inside society. Extra time the rationalists have inclined farther away from vision and nearer to authenticity, Plato being the most optimistic and Alexis de Tocqueville the most sensible.
Plato philosophized that the individuals who oversee ought to be of a higher scholarly and moral type. “The heaviest punishment for declining to manage is to be controlled by somebody substandard compared to yourself.” This is a greater amount of a romantic perspective as power doesn’t normally go to the righteous and scholarly. Particularly on the grounds that Plato says individuals are administered by their longing. Individuals are brought into the world with the longing to have more riches, influence and sex than others. In the event that this is to be accepted, Plato’s contention that the ethically strong and prudent ought to administer would be almost unthinkable accordingly making him a dreamer. In the event that everybody is driven by their covetousness, hands down the greediest of people will get extraordinary power. This makes it unthinkable for the ethically solid and righteous to run the show.
Plato’s optimism is additionally clear in his idea of specialization. Plato states that individuals ought to do what they are fit to and that’s it. He says “we should construe that everything is delivered all the more copiously and effectively and of a superior quality when one man does one thing which is normal to him, and does it brilliantly, and leaves different things. The people who rule simply rule and the individuals who ranch. Everybody adheres to their path. This wouldn’t work on the off chance that individuals were driven by the longing to gain more influence and abundance as they wouldn’t be content remaining in that frame of mind without the capacity to climb. Plato expounds on an optimal society while likewise perceiving that what he accepts is the normal nature of man won’t ever permit that society to occur.
Thomas Aquinas is additionally an optimist. That’s what aquinas expresses “Truly that the world is managed by Divine Fortune… the entire local area of the universe is administered by Divine Explanation.” (ST, I-II, 91.1). He makes sense of the idea of everlasting regulation wherein power is given supernaturally. He proceeds to say “the general concept of the public authority of things in God the Leader of the universe, has the idea of a regulation. Also, since Divine Explanation’s origination of things isn’t likely to time however is everlasting, as indicated by Prov. viii, 23… this sort of regulation should be called everlasting.” (In the same place.). It is through everlasting regulation that God can oversee his subjects. As people have unrestrained choice, they stray the ideal administration of God and keep normal regulation. Normal regulation is only the manner by which people decipher and observe timeless regulation. This philosophy is optimist as it is ridiculous that people will observe the normal regulation impeccably and endeavor to accomplish something beneficial and stay away from evil. He likewise expresses that political society is made to address the issues of human instinct as opposed to by human’s own creativity.
Machiavelli is even more a pragmatist as he sees the world through a critical view. He sees individuals as self-intrigued and computing as opposed to what individuals should be. He talks honestly about the defeats of humankind and their He expounds on how one ought to approach getting and keeping up with power in the domain of ravenous self-intrigued people. Like Plato, that’s what he contends “a shrewd man should constantly to follow the ways beaten by extraordinary men” (41) or as such, just some are fit to lead. Essentially, to Plato, Machiavelli trusted in lying for the more prominent reason. While Plato expounded on the respectable untruth, Machiavelli expresses that a decent ruler has the five characteristics: leniency, unwaveringness, humankind, legalism, and uprightness. He proceeds to say that the sovereign didn’t be guaranteed to have to meet these rules he simply had to “ap