Intelligence Studies: Critical Intelligence Analysis
Analytical conclusions should always be regarded as tentative as the situation is likely to change when you receive new information that alters your appraisal. It is always helpful to specify in advance indicators one should look for or be alert to that if observed, would suggest a significant change in the probabilities. This is useful for intelligence consumers who are following the situation on a continuing basis. Specifying in advance what would cause you to change your mind will also make it more difficult for you to rationalize such developments, if they occur, as not really requiring any modification of your judgment.
1. Overview. Identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected.
2. Instructions. For the hypothesis you assessed “most likely to occur,” develop 10 indicators (i.e. future events) you would expect to see if the hypothesis were to occur.
a. Indicators are future events that have yet to occur and are based on your assessment of how the scenario will unfold. Indicators are not historical and are not contained in the scenario. For example, if you assessed the PRC-Taiwan crisis was going to be resolved diplomatically, you’d expect to see a special envoy from the United Nations be appointed to serve as the central negotiator. If you expected to see the crisis resolved by direct attack, you’d expect to see increased communications between PRC military units as they prepare to deploy and/or initiate hostilities against Taiwan.
b. Indicators must be specific; general indicators are of no value.
