Memo

To: Policymakers

From: Bard

Date: September 19, 2023

Subject: The Role of the Security Dilemma in US-China Relations in the Context of Taiwan

Introduction

The security dilemma is a situation in which states take actions to improve their own security, which are perceived by other states as threats to their own security, leading to a spiral of insecurity and mistrust. The security dilemma is a key concept in international relations theory, and it has been used to explain a variety of conflicts, including the Cold War and the current rivalry between the United States and China.

The security dilemma plays a significant role in US-China relations in the context of Taiwan. The United States has a long-standing interest in maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and it has provided Taiwan with military aid and support for decades. China, on the other hand, claims Taiwan as its own territory and has vowed to reunite the island with the mainland, by force if necessary.

In recent years, the security dilemma in US-China relations has become more acute. China’s military modernization and growing assertiveness in the region have led to increased tensions with the United States and Taiwan. The Trump administration’s adoption of a more confrontational approach to China has further exacerbated the situation.

The Security Dilemma and the Choices and Outcomes of the Involved Parties

The security dilemma has had a significant impact on the choices and outcomes of the involved parties in US-China relations in the context of Taiwan.

• The United States has increased its military presence in the region and strengthened its ties with Taiwan. This has been done to deter China from attacking Taiwan and to reassure Taiwan of US support. However, these actions have also been seen by China as provocative and threatening.
• China has increased its military deployments near Taiwan and has engaged in more aggressive military exercises. This has been done to deter the United States from intervening in the event of a conflict over Taiwan and to coerce Taiwan into accepting reunification with the mainland. However, these actions have also increased tensions with the United States and Taiwan and have raised the risk of a conflict.
• Taiwan has increased its defense spending and has sought to strengthen its military capabilities. This has been done to deter a Chinese attack and to reassure the Taiwanese people of their government’s commitment to defending them. However, these actions have also been seen by China as provocative and threatening.

Does the Security Dilemma Sufficiently Explain the Observed Actions and Outcomes?

The security dilemma provides a useful framework for understanding the dynamics of US-China relations in the context of Taiwan. However, it is important to note that the security dilemma is not the only factor that influences the behavior of the involved parties. Other factors, such as domestic politics, nationalism, and historical grievances, also play a role.

For example, the rise of nationalist sentiment in both China and the United States has made it more difficult for the two countries to compromise on the Taiwan issue. Additionally, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) need to maintain legitimacy among the Chinese people may make it difficult for the CCP to back down on its claims to Taiwan.

Alternative Explanations

In addition to the security dilemma, there are a number of other possible explanations for the observed actions and outcomes of the involved parties in US-China relations in the context of Taiwan.

One alternative explanation is that China is pursuing a strategy of “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan. According to this view, China is using economic and diplomatic pressure to convince Taiwan to accept reunification on its terms. However, this explanation does not account for China’s military modernization and growing military assertiveness in the region.

Another alternative explanation is that the United States is seeking to contain China’s rise as a global power. According to this view, the United States is using Taiwan as a pawn in a larger geopolitical game. However, this explanation does not account for the strong bipartisan support in the United States for maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

Levels of Analysis

The security dilemma can be analyzed at different levels of analysis. The individual level of analysis focuses on the role of individual decision-makers in shaping state behavior. The state level of analysis focuses on the domestic and international factors that influence state behavior. The international system level of analysis focuses on the structure and dynamics of the international system in shaping state behavior.

The security dilemma in US-China relations in the context of Taiwan can be analyzed at all three levels of analysis. At the individual level, the decisions of leaders in the United States, China, and Taiwan play a significant role in shaping the dynamics of the situation. At the state level, domestic factors such as nationalism and public opinion influence the choices of the involved parties. At the international system level, the structure and dynamics of the international system, such as the rise of