Proportions of overtime wins
Among 460 overtime National Football League (NFL) games between 1974 and 2011, 252 of the teams that won the overtime coin toss went on to win the
game. During those years, a team could win the coin toss and march down the field to win the game with a field goal, and the other team would never get
possession of the ball. That just didn’t seem fair.
Starting in 2012, the overtime rules were changed. In the first three years with the new overtime rules, 47 games were decided in overtime and the team that
won the coin toss won 24 of those games.
First, explore the two proportions of overtime wins (for the 1974-2011 data and then for the 2012 data). Does there appear to be a difference? If so, how?
Create a claim to be tested, then test it. Use a hypothesis test as well as a confidence interval.
What do you conclude about the effectiveness of the overtime rule change?
Sample Solution
In examining the proportions of overtime wins between 1974 and 2011 and 2012 respectively, it appears that there is a notable difference in the results. For the data from 1974-2011, 252 out of 460 games were won by teams who had won the coin toss (54.78%). However, upon implementation of modified rules in 2012 this rate dropped to 24 out of 47 (51.06%) which suggests that winning teams are no longer as heavily favored when it comes to overtime games.
This discrepancy can be attributed to several factors such as the modification of rules which now stipulate that both teams must have at least one possession during overtime periods (National Football League , 2019). Additionally, due to more strict regulations around scoring boundaries and time limits on each team’s respective possessions, less opportunities for one team to dominate exist. These changes ultimately level the playing field and allow for greater parity when competing against other teams (National Football League, 2019).
