Statistics and Reliability

 

 

In this modern age, we are inundated with statistics (e.g., 50% of marriages end in divorce), so much so that
many accept them at face value. Do you think statistics are a reliable source of data? Do you think, for the
most part, people should accept statistics at face value? How might we misuse statistics, purposefully or
accidentally? What do you think are the limitations or risks of using statistics to persuade individuals?
Topic 2. Causal Arguments in the Real World
“Correlation does not imply causation” is a phrase that is often thrown around. Just because two events are
associated does not mean that one cause another. Yet, we often fall into this trap. We use singular
observations to generate weakly justified conclusions.
In your opinion, why do people willingly assume that correlation implies causation? How might you prevent
yourself from making this assumption? Is it important to make a distinction between correlation and causation?
If academic, scientific, and political institutions failed to make this distinction, what do you think would happen?

 

Sample Solution

specifically in Africa. Mauritius has been considered to have made a successful demographic transition and have reached the stage of sustainable fertility decline whereas Madagascar has not.

The decline in fertility in Mauritius is assumed to be the most rapid fertility decline in the world. The challenge faced by Mauritius is to sustain the transition while in the case of Madagascar, the challenge is to adapt and practice lessons provided by Mauritius.

The table shows how Madagascar has one of the highest population growth rates as well as TFR. At the same time, it can be observed that Mauritius has the lowest population growth rate and TFR and the country has steadily managed to lower these rates over the years.

The major cause of difference that arises between the two countries that has lead to them levelling at different stages of demographic transition lies in the fact that Madagascar is plagued by political crisis and instability. Education, particularly of women, is certainly one of the most important factors that affected fertility behaviour and contributed to controlling population growth in Mauritius. About 80 per cent of the population are educated; 75 per cent of women in Mauritius are literate. Education in Mauritius through to university is free, with primary education compulsory. Employment along with education, contributed to higher living standards of the population where the vast majority of people bene ted from employment. It is difficult to attain this in Madagascar due to political disarray. It is well known that the success of Mauritian population management has been largely attributed to the Government’s concern and deep commitment to reducing the rate of population growth, through supportive and

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