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“gaining the confidence of the international arbiters and financial speculators,” (Yeldan p.210). Turkey’s addiction to short-term foreign finance meant it had to keep high interest rates, but these rates clashed with the goal of debt sustainability, and cheap foreign currency became necessary to lower costs of imported intermediate goods: the only source of growth in a contracting economy dependent on international speculators, which was also a cause of the ‘94 crisis, (Yeldan p. 211). International speculative investors were attracted by the stabilization program, which had lowered rates and provided “safe one-sided bets,” (Ekinci and Ertürk p. 39) But banks, essentially gambling to stay afloat under the pressure and gasping for liquidity, sold off government securities, which led to a hike in the interest rate, which led global investors to pull out, causing a severe credit crunch that the central bank, constrained by the program, could not prevent by ejecting liquidity (Eichengreen 2001, p. 7). Finally, monetary authorities provided the much-needed liquidity, but the doubts raised by the moved caused even more capital flight, so the IMF gave $10 billion on the condition that the Turkish government’s strengthening the financial sector, budget, and privatization, (Eichengreen, 2001, p. 6). Public political disputes about the reforms caused doubt and uncertainty that led to interest rates shooting up several thousand percent, which forced the currency to float, losing half of its value and a sharp rise in inflation; add to this the public debt growth on account of the high interest rates and GDP fell, leading the IMF to dole out another $8 billion after the Turkish government passed structural reforms, including, at last, a new important banking law, (Eichengreen 2001, p. 7).
Since 2001
Following Turkey’s liberalization, the IMF prescribed the same stabilizing policy prescription, putting stress on arguably the weakest part of the Turkish economy. These crises were a critical juncture in Turkey’s economic history. The austerity plan that followed was unusually effective:
“While recessions typically strengthen popular opposition to belt-tightening, the sheer depth of the financial crisis, the worst in postwar Turkish history, gave the state a unique window of opportunity to implement far-reaching reforms as it became clear that the previous policies had led to a state of near-bankruptcy of the Turkish economy, thus dramatically weakening popular resistance to Washington Consensus policies as well as to “Euro-skepticism” in Turkey (Öniç 2004). The crash and ensuing reforms paved the way to a significant restructuring of the Turkish political economy.” (Cammet p. 289)
There have been other crises since, however. The global financial crisis of 2008 affected Turkey, but i
