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Using Al and simulation tools in supply chain

Published by admin at September 5, 2022
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  • Business
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  • Using Al and simulation tools in supply chain

 

The success of the initial daily forecasting activities at Coolies regional outlets (refer to Activity 2 HERE) has helped them coordinate agreements with suppliers that significantly minimized the risk of overstocking/understocking faced by these stores. Now, Coolies is considering a reconfiguration of its supply chain network and wishes to implement new agreements accordingly with its suppliers for high demand non-perishable items (i.e., rice and pasta). It must first understand and forecast the total demand for these products in order to enter the right contract with suppliers, and therefore must use aggregated demand for its future forecasts. While there has been success with the daily forecasting approach, this method is more suitable to implement in day to day operations. Focusing on network reconfiguration and contract design, Coolies has decided to employ aggregated Weekly forecasting approach rather than daily to save costs and improve coordination. Before they proceed with aggregated weekly forecasts, however, they must establish the error in the forecasting method to determine whether the switch in forecasting approach for both SKUs is justified. Using the historical demand data for rice and pasta provided HERE, run the Forecasting Al Plus module and submit your answer to the following questions:
• Q1: Considering the historical demand data from August 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020 and using the forecasting Al Plus module of the Log-Hub add-in, forecast the aggregated weekly demand for January 1st, 2021 to March 31st, 2021 for each product. Provide the visualization for each forecast and briefly explain your observations.
• Q2: For each product, calculate the error in the weekly forecast (i.e., the weekly forecasted value between January 1st, 2021 and March 31st, 2021 minus actual total demand value for each week in the same period). Calculate the weekly MAPE of the forecasts for each product (refer to Measures of Forecast Error concept). Briefly explain your observations.
• Q3: If the Weekly MAPE value obtained in the previous step is less than 50%, use weekly aggregation for that SKU to forecast the months of April to June 2021, based on actual demand data from August 1, 2019 to March 31st, 2021. Otherwise, change the aggregation basis in the Forecasting Al module to Day and use daily aggregation if MAPE for an SKU is 50% or greater. Briefly explain your observations.

 

Sample Solution

Using the Forecasting Al Plus module of Log-Hub add-in, I have forecasted the aggregated weekly demand for both rice and pasta from January 1st to March 31st 2021. The results are shown in Figures 1 and 2.

Figure 1: Rice Forecast Visualization

Figure 2: Pasta Forecast Visualization

Both figures show that the forecasts for each product by week remain relatively consistent with very minor fluctuations throughout the period. The predicted demand for both products is also slightly lower than their respective historical average demand, suggesting that Coolie may have overestimated their future needs when they decided to switch to aggregated weekly forecasting approach instead of daily.

Overall, it appears that this reconfiguration and new contract design is suitable in this situation since it can help reduce potential costs associated with overstocking or understocking while still providing adequate resources meet customers’ needs; however further analysis should done order ensure accuracy predictions align reality on ground once business operations resume normal levels post-pandemic restrictions.

Transient memory is the memory for a boost that goes on for a brief time (Carlson, 2001). In reasonable terms visual transient memory is frequently utilized for a relative reason when one can’t thoroughly search in two spots immediately however wish to look at least two prospects. Tuholski and partners allude to momentary memory similar to the attendant handling and stockpiling of data (Tuholski, Engle, and Baylis, 2001). They additionally feature the way that mental capacity can frequently be antagonistically impacted by working memory limit. It means quite a bit to be sure about the typical limit of momentary memory as, without a legitimate comprehension of the flawless cerebrum’s working it is challenging to evaluate whether an individual has a shortage in capacity (Parkin, 1996).

This survey frames George Miller’s verifiable perspective on transient memory limit and how it tends to be impacted, prior to bringing the examination state-of-the-art and outlining a determination of approaches to estimating momentary memory limit. The verifiable perspective on momentary memory limit

Length of outright judgment
The range of outright judgment is characterized as the breaking point to the precision with which one can distinguish the greatness of a unidimensional boost variable (Miller, 1956), with this cutoff or length generally being around 7 + 2. Mill operator refers to Hayes memory length try as proof for his restricting range. In this members needed to review data read resoundingly to them and results obviously showed that there was a typical maximum restriction of 9 when double things were utilized. This was regardless of the consistent data speculation, which has proposed that the range ought to be long if each introduced thing contained little data (Miller, 1956). The end from Hayes and Pollack’s tests (see figure 1) was that how much data sent expansions in a straight design alongside how much data per unit input (Miller, 1956). Figure 1. Estimations of memory for data wellsprings of various sorts and bit remainders, contrasted with anticipated results for steady data. Results from Hayes (left) and Pollack (right) refered to by (Miller, 1956)

Pieces and lumps
Mill operator alludes to a ‘digit’ of data as need might have arisen ‘to settle on a choice between two similarly probable other options’. In this manner a basic either or choice requires the slightest bit of data; with more expected for additional complicated choices, along a twofold pathway (Miller, 1956). Decimal digits are worth 3.3 pieces each, implying that a 7-digit telephone number (what is handily recollected) would include 23 pieces of data. Anyway an evident inconsistency to this is the way that, assuming an English word is worth around 10 pieces and just 23 pieces could be recollected then just 2-3 words could be recalled at any one time, clearly mistaken. The restricting range can all the more likely be figured out concerning the absorption of pieces into lumps. Mill operator recognizes pieces and lumps of data, the qualification being that a lump is comprised of various pieces of data. It is fascinating to take note of that while there is a limited ability to recall lumps of data, how much pieces in every one of those lumps can differ generally (Miller, 1956). Anyway it’s anything but a straightforward instance of having the memorable option enormous pieces right away, fairly that as each piece turns out to be more recognizable, it tends to be acclimatized into a lump, which is then recollected itself. Recoding is the interaction by which individual pieces are ‘recoded’ and appointed to lumps.
Transient memory is the memory for a boost that goes on for a brief time (Carlson, 2001). In down to earth terms visual momentary memory is frequently utilized for a relative reason when one can’t search in two spots without a moment’s delay however wish to look at least two prospects. Tuholski and partners allude to transient memory similar to the attendant handling and stockpiling of data (Tuholski, Engle, and Baylis, 2001). They likewise feature the way that mental capacity can frequently be unfavorably impacted by working memory limit. It means a lot to be sure about the ordinary limit of momentary memory as, without a legitimate comprehension of the unblemished mind’s working it is hard to evaluate whether an individual has a shortfall in capacity (Parkin, 1996).

This survey frames George Miller’s verifiable perspective on transient memory limit and how it tends to be impacted, prior to bringing the exploration forward-thinking and representing a determination of approaches to estimating momentary memory limit. The authentic perspective on transient memory limit

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