Utility of Probability Models in Healthcare Administration

 

 

You are the healthcare administration leader for a health services organization and are interested in achieving a standard, whereby 90% of all patients are screened within the initial 15 minutes of arriving for a family practice appointment. In a random sample of 30 patients, you find that 25 were screened within 15 minutes. The probability that this event (or one more extreme) would occur, might be modeled as a binomial with the following probability statement:
P(X≤25 | N=30, p=0.9)
To solve, you use =binom.dist(25, 30, 0.9, TRUE) in Excel and find that you would expect 25 or fewer screenings in 30 trials when the success rate should be 0.9 about 17.5% of the time.

For this Discussion, consider how one of the distributions presented might be useful for healthcare administration leaders.

Post an example of how one of the distributions presented might be used in your health services organization or one with which you are familiar. Then, generate a representative probability statement based on the scenario and solve using fictitious data. Be specific in your probability statement.

 

Sample Solution

The Clinical Practice Guideline is required for the Probability-Utility Model to function. The Model’s purpose is to give physicians and patients with decision analyses that show how human preferences alter the character of best evidence. Initially, patients are given a clinical practice guideline based on the best data for “average patients.” The Model is designed to show how choice, utility, and cost best evidence influence judgments. It provides patients with an understanding of these effects. As a result, patients may gain a better understanding of the options available to them when it comes to making the best clinical decisions for their own health care. When examining different treatment alternatives and clinical circumstances, the model also includes visual pictures that can be utilized to help people talk about their personal choices.

Folklore plays an enormous role in the formation not only of a sense of national identity, but of personal identity too – as children, many of us grow up listening to folktales involving talking animals, wicked witches, supernatural beings and magical powers, and these tales tend significantly influence our development. They can be moralizing or purely aesthetic: regardless, folktales capture the imagination and instil a sense of wonder in the listener, continuing an ancient oral tradition that links us to our ancestors. Many of the elements of folklore and the folktale are shared between cultures – the supernatural, for example, or the enduring figure of the evil, ugly old witch – but Russia enjoys a particularly rich and vibrant body of work deriving from these influences. Although interest in the folktale (skazka, in Russian) and in folkloric influences only became truly prominent in the 19th century onwards, it has had an enormous impact upon the nation’s culture, particularly in the arts. Countless writers have produced both prose and verse that is permeated with folk influences, including Lermontov, Gogol’, Pushkin and Blok. The legacy of folklore is no less prominent in the musical world of the mid-nineteenth to early-twentieth centuries: operas and orchestral works composed by the likes of Mussorgsky, Stravinsky, Rimsky-Korsakov and Liadov draw upon many aspects of folk music and archetypal characters from the skazka. This essay will examine the interaction and interdependence of these art forms, their shared roots in Slavic mythology, and the scale of the impact of these influences on modern Russian culture, with particular regard to music.

The mythological roots of Russian folklore

Many of the elements of Russian folklore can be traced back to their roots in the ritualistic pagan beliefs of the ancient Slavs; across Russia, what is now modern-day Ukraine, and other Slavic nations. Unlike the Greeks, Romans, and other peoples, not much is known about the beliefs or mythology of the prehistoric Slavs, and concrete evidence of this was only discovered in the 1st and 2nd centuries A.D. However, the sheer vastness of Russia and the surrounding areas, and the diversity of the people who inhabited them, means that these tribes were home to a real wealth of religious customs and beliefs. Invasion and occupation by groups such as the Scythian, Sarmatian, and Germanic peoples, as well as contact with the nomadic Iranian Scyths and Celtic tribes, had a significant linguistic, religious and mythological impact upon the Slavonic peoples. Despite this huge diversity, Slavic tribes shared many common beliefs and rituals. Given that these peoples were surrounded by and subject to the forces of nature, an unrivalled power that they could not yet understand, it seems inevitable that they would revere and worship it. This worshipping of nature in all its forms

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