Value Probability

 

 

Problem 1: (10 points) Solve problem 11 of Chapter 13
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A B C DEF
Shaft Radius 1.001 Triangular(min,likely,max) 1.000 1.001 1.002
Bushing Radius 1.002 Normal(mean,st.dev.) 1.002 0.001
Clearance 0.0010
Problem 2: (20 points) Solve problem 16 of Chapter 13
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A B C DE
Purchase Price $100
Selling Price $150
Order Quantity 14
Value Probability
Demand 14 Discrete (Custom) 10 0.05
11 0.1
Revenue $2,100 12 0.1
Purchase Cost $1,400 13 0.15
Total Profit $700 14 0.2
15 0.15
16 0.1
17 0.1
18 0.05
Problem 3: (20 points) Solve problem 18 of Chapter 13
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A B C D E
Data
Our Project Cost ($million) 5.000
Our Bid Cost ($million) 0.050
Competitor Bids Competitor 1 Competitor 2 Competitor 3 Competitor 4
Bid ($million) 6.083 6.083 6.083 6.083
Distribution Triangular Triangular Triangular Triangular
Competitor Distribution Parameters (Proportion of Our Project Cost)
Minimum 105% 105% 105% 105%
Most Likely 120% 120% 120% 120%
Maximum 140% 140% 140% 140%
Competitor Distribution Parameters ($millions)
Minimum 5.250 5.250 5.250 5.250
Most Likely 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000
Maximum 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000
Minimum Competitor
Bid ($million) 6.083
Our Bid ($million) 5.700
Win Bid? 1 (1=yes, 0=no)
Profit ($million) 0.650
Problem 4: (25 points) Solve problem 22 of Chapter 13
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A B CD E F
Airline Overbooking
Discount
Data Reservations
Seats Available 112 to Accept 75
Fixed Cost $10,000
Discount Fare $150 Total
Full Coach Fare $400 Reservations
Cost of Bumping $600 to Accept 120
Discount Ticket Demand (Triangular)
Minimum 50 Discount-Fare Demand 96.66666667
Most Likely 90 Rounded 97
Maximum 150 Tickets Purchased 75
Probability to Show Up 95% Number that Show 71.25
Full-Coach Ticket Demand (Uniform) Full Coach Demand 50
Minimum 30 Rounded 50
Maximum 70 Tickets Purchased 45
Probability to Show Up 85% Number that Show 38.25
Number Denied Boarding 0
Number of Filled Seats 109.5
Revenue (Discount Fare) $11,250
Revenue (Full Coach) $15,300
Bumping Cost $0
Fixed Cost $10,000
Profit $16,550.00
Problem 5: (25 points) Solve problem 23 of Chapter 13
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A B C D E F G H I J
Initial Annual
Stock Fund $3,000 $2,000
Bond Fund $3,000 $2,000
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Stock Fund Investment $5,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000
Stock Fund Start $5,000 $7,400 $9,992 $12,791 $15,815 $17,080 Mean St. Dev.
Stock Fund Return (%) 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% Normal 8% 6%
Stock Fund End $5,400 $7,992 $10,791 $13,815 $17,080
Bond Fund Investment $5,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000 $2,000
Bond Fund Start $5,000 $7,200 $9,488 $11,868 $14,342 $14,916
Bond Fund Return (%) 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Normal 4% 3%
Bond Fund End $5,200 $7,488 $9,868 $12,342 $14,916
Total $31,996

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sample Solutions

Item arrangement is the manner by which brands are put into non-promoting media like PC amusements, books, famous tunes and stage plays for e.g. supported activitys for the advancement of Cadbury’s chocolate put in the UK TV cleanser ‘Crowning liturgy Street’ after the opening titles and after and before the business breaks; this is influencing the youngsters and attracting them to purchase the Cadbury chocolate since little kids can’t separate this is an include. It is a developing wonder in market, which has gotten generally little consideration from business ethicists. In advertising at the large scale level, there are issues of maintainability and misuse of assets through overconsumption by encouraging covetousness and realism. Promoting works at the center point of riches creation; it pulls in a ton of the general analysis coordinated at free enterprise concerning the disintegration of regular assets and the devastation of nature. At smaller scale level, it pulls in a ton of reactions for explicit instances of double dealing or conning, for example, deluding/wrong sustenance marks or differential value publicizing. There is across the board analysis of showcasing works on advancing items that are unsafe to wellbeing, similar to high-fat and high-salt sustenances, cigarettes and liquor. UK has made Ofcom(Office of Communication) to make the laws with respect to item situation in a way depicted above.The code incorporates an area on ‘Business references and different issues’. Inside this segment, three standards are indicated (under Section 10): (1) supporters must keep up full publication command over customized content, (2)editorial and publicizing must be plainly isolated, and (3) item position is restricted (http://www.ofcom.org.uk/television/ifi/codes/bcode/business/). Item arrangement and regular promoting morals Moral assessment of promoting rehearses has commonly utilized three noteworthy strands of good reasoning, utilitarianism, deontology and excellence morals (Robin and Reidenbach 1987). We are examining 2 of them. An utilitarian assessment of showcasing is for the most part to concentrate on its convenience to society, the way that at a miniaturized scale level, it helps common trades among makers and purchasers, while at a full scale level, it empowers the general public to appreciate the advantages of the division of work. The moral worries of purchasers in regards to item position fit into this classification – item arrangement of firearms and cigarettes, for instance, might be viewed as deceptive by a few customers. An utilitarian assessment may well arrive at the resolution that item arrangement is in fact, a moral practice. This is under the thinking that the expanded deals are the indications of consumer loyalty as can be sensibly accepted in any event for instances of express item situation. Then again, there is the hazard that expanded item situation may, undermine the nature of intervened amusement and data,, hence decreasing social, utility notwithstanding when it increments financial utility. Goodness morals may give the best study of item situation since it centers around the aims and the character of the individual starting the activity as opposed to the moral status of the demonstration itself. By assessing the virtual morals in item position ome focuses which can be attracted are promoting, lawfulness must be the principle basis for passing judgment on the moral status of the motive.A showcasing effort improved the situation the buyers who are very much educated and who realize this is a kind of ad contrasts in moral terms from publicizing to kids who can’t recognize TV programs, amusements, melodies and publicizing. On the off chance that numerous customers know about the method of item position, it will have less impact morally. Numerous youthful shoppers undoubtedly think about the nature and degree of item arrangement as it happens in films, TV appears and other amusement items. Yet, the degree to which even an insightful gathering of people knows about an item situation correspondence while they are simply appreciating the sensational stimulation is extremely hard to build up. Numerous shoppers will say that they are not affected by promoting, but rather this case appears to be not any more tenable than the case of thinking about item position as a showcasing procedure, it doesn’t invulnerable one to trickiness. Consequently, there is a requirement for a moral investigation that bargains with item arrangement, which again can apply an utilitarian, a deontological and an uprightness morals point of view; aside from this it likewise needs to consider circumstance explicit components that emerge from the idea of the item, the level of buyer information, the ramifications of, showcase division techniques, the expectation, of the advertiser and, the natural genuineness of, the strategy for influence utilized.

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